Earnings

Which of these 2 stocks can turn out to be absolute gem? – ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD), Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

The shares of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. have decreased by more than -37.50% this year alone. The shares recently went down by -7.29% or -$1.48 and now trades at $18.82. The shares of Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE:LPX), has slumped by -16.57% year to date as of 12/04/2018. The shares currently trade at $21.91 and have been able to report a change of -3.78% over the past one week.

The stock of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Louisiana-Pacific Corporation were two of the most active stocks on Tuesday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 13.60% versus 5.00%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that ACAD will grow it’s earning at a 13.60% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to LPX which will have a positive growth at a 5.00% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of ACAD implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. The ROI of ACAD is -67.00% while that of LPX is 19.50%. These figures suggest that LPX ventures generate a higher ROI than that of ACAD.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, ACAD’s free cash flow per share is a negative -0.04, while that of LPX is positive 2.53.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for ACAD is 6.10 and that of LPX is 6.10. This implies that it is easier for ACAD to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than LPX. The debt ratio of ACAD is 0.00 compared to 0.20 for LPX. LPX can be able to settle its long-term debts and thus is a lower financial risk than ACAD.

Valuation

ACAD currently trades at a P/B of 10.51, and a P/S of 11.96 while LPX trades at a forward P/E of 10.03, a P/B of 1.72, and a P/S of 1.06. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, LPX is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of ACAD is currently at a -41.55% to its one-year price target of 32.20. Looking at its rival pricing, LPX is at a -28.56% relative to its price target of 30.67.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), ACAD is given a 2.30 while 2.20 placed for LPX. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for ACAD stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for ACAD is 5.36 while that of LPX is just 2.26. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for LPX stock.

Conclusion

The stock of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. defeats that of Louisiana-Pacific Corporation when the two are compared, with ACAD taking 5 out of the total factors that were been considered. ACAD happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, ACAD is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for ACAD is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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