Earnings

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT) is better stock pick than Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI)

The shares of Activision Blizzard, Inc. have increased by more than 24.15% this year alone. The shares recently went up by 3.18% or $2.42 and now trades at $78.61. The shares of Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE:RHT), has jumped by 20.73% year to date as of 07/11/2018. The shares currently trade at $145.00 and have been able to report a change of 7.20% over the past one week.

The stock of Activision Blizzard, Inc. and Red Hat, Inc. were two of the most active stocks on Wednesday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 16.32% versus 16.92%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that ATVI will grow it’s earning at a 16.32% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to RHT which will have a positive growth at a 16.92% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of RHT implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. ATVI has an EBITDA margin of 28.72%, this implies that the underlying business of ATVI is more profitable. The ROI of ATVI is 7.60% while that of RHT is 17.00%. These figures suggest that RHT ventures generate a higher ROI than that of ATVI.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, ATVI’s free cash flow per share is a positive 7.05, while that of RHT is positive 10.65.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for ATVI is 2.20 and that of RHT is 1.40. This implies that it is easier for ATVI to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than RHT. The debt ratio of ATVI is 0.00 compared to 0.52 for RHT. RHT can be able to settle its long-term debts and thus is a lower financial risk than ATVI.

Valuation

ATVI currently trades at a forward P/E of 26.31, a P/B of 6.07, and a P/S of 8.11 while RHT trades at a forward P/E of 36.47, a P/B of 17.47, and a P/S of 8.40. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, ATVI is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of ATVI is currently at a 1.28% to its one-year price target of 77.62. Looking at its rival pricing, RHT is at a -12.16% relative to its price target of 165.08.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), ATVI is given a 2.00 while 2.30 placed for RHT. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for RHT stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for ATVI is 2.23 while that of RHT is just 3.21. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for ATVI stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Red Hat, Inc. defeats that of Activision Blizzard, Inc. when the two are compared, with RHT taking 5 out of the total factors that were been considered. RHT happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, RHT is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for RHT is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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