Earnings

Valvoline Inc. (VVV) is better stock pick than Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

The shares of Valvoline Inc. have decreased by more than -16.36% this year alone. The shares recently went down by -0.10% or -$0.02 and now trades at $20.96. The shares of Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ:GSM), has slumped by -36.42% year to date as of 06/06/2018. The shares currently trade at $10.30 and have been able to report a change of -1.34% over the past one week.

The stock of Valvoline Inc. and Ferroglobe PLC were two of the most active stocks on Wednesday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 13.29% versus 20.00%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that VVV will grow it’s earning at a 13.29% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to GSM which will have a positive growth at a 20.00% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of GSM implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. VVV has an EBITDA margin of 1.5%, this implies that the underlying business of GSM is more profitable. The ROI of VVV is 33.50% while that of GSM is 1.80%. These figures suggest that VVV ventures generate a higher ROI than that of GSM.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, VVV’s free cash flow per share is a positive 2.63, while that of GSM is negative -2.27.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for VVV is 1.90 and that of GSM is 1.50. This implies that it is easier for VVV to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than GSM.

Valuation

VVV currently trades at a forward P/E of 13.65, and a P/S of 1.91 while GSM trades at a forward P/E of 9.59, a P/B of 2.17, and a P/S of 0.91. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, GSM is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of VVV is currently at a -17.35% to its one-year price target of 25.36. Looking at its rival pricing, GSM is at a -41.14% relative to its price target of 17.50.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), VVV is given a 2.30 while 1.40 placed for GSM. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for VVV stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for VVV is 7.68 while that of GSM is just 3.72. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for GSM stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Valvoline Inc. defeats that of Ferroglobe PLC when the two are compared, with VVV taking 6 out of the total factors that were been considered. VVV happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, VVV is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for VVV is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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