Earnings

Choosing Between Hot Stocks: Century Aluminum Company (CENX), Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)

The shares of Century Aluminum Company have decreased by more than -11.71% this year alone. The shares recently went up by 2.36% or $0.4 and now trades at $17.34. The shares of Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:AGI), has slumped by -20.89% year to date as of 05/17/2018. The shares currently trade at $5.15 and have been able to report a change of -3.56% over the past one week.

The stock of Century Aluminum Company and Alamos Gold Inc. were two of the most active stocks on Thuday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. CENX has an EBITDA margin of 10.41%, this implies that the underlying business of AGI is more profitable. These figures suggest that CENX ventures generate a higher ROI than that of AGI.

Cash Flow

The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, CENX’s free cash flow per share is a negative -2.32.

Valuation



CENX currently trades at a forward P/E of 9.81, a P/B of 1.83, and a P/S of 0.88 while AGI trades at a forward P/E of 23.41, a P/B of 0.75, and a P/S of 2.85. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, CENX is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions

The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of CENX is currently at a -28.93% to its one-year price target of 24.40. Looking at its rival pricing, AGI is at a -42.84% relative to its price target of 9.01.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), CENX is given a 2.40 while 2.20 placed for AGI. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for CENX stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment




Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for CENX is 1.60 while that of AGI is just 2.89. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for CENX stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Century Aluminum Company defeats that of Alamos Gold Inc. when the two are compared, with CENX taking 6 out of the total factors that were been considered. CENX happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, CENX is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for CENX is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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