Reliable Long-term Trend to Profit From: CSX Corporation (CSX), Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)

The shares of CSX Corporation have increased by more than 53.08% this year alone. The shares recently went up by 0.22% or $0.12 and now trades at $55.00. The shares of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY), has jumped by 20.86% year to date as of 12/25/2017. The shares currently trade at $12.05 and have been able to report a change of -1.55% over the past one week.

The stock of CSX Corporation and Annaly Capital Management, Inc. were two of the most active stocks on Monday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 16.08% versus 0.12%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that CSX will grow it’s earning at a 16.08% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to NLY which will have a positive growth at a 0.12% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of CSX implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. CSX has an EBITDA margin of 39.09%, this implies that the underlying business of NLY is more profitable. The ROI of CSX is 9.80% while that of NLY is 1.70%. These figures suggest that CSX ventures generate a higher ROI than that of NLY.

Cash Flow 

The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, CSX’s free cash flow per share is a positive 5.41.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The debt ratio of CSX is 1.08 compared to 6.18 for NLY. NLY can be able to settle its long-term debts and thus is a lower financial risk than CSX.


CSX currently trades at a forward P/E of 20.48, a P/B of 4.56, and a P/S of 4.23 while NLY trades at a forward P/E of 10.14, a P/B of 1.04, and a P/S of 3.71. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, NLY is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions

The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of CSX is currently at a -5.63% to its one-year price target of 58.28. Looking at its rival pricing, NLY is at a 5.42% relative to its price target of 11.43. This figure implies that over the next one year, NLY is a better investment.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), CSX is given a 2.20 while 3.40 placed for NLY. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for NLY stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for CSX is 2.57 while that of NLY is just 2.33. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for NLY stock.


The stock of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. defeats that of CSX Corporation when the two are compared, with NLY taking 6 out of the total factors that were been considered. NLY happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, NLY is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for NLY is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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