Finance

What do Insider Trends Have to Say About Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)?

Recent insider trends for Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) have caught the attention of investors. Insider data is useful because it can reveal what a company’s executives and largest shareholders feel about a stock. In this case, the data has some interesting things to say about how FOSL might perform in the future.

Institutions own 103.05% of Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)’s shares. The total value of these holdings, in millions, is $338. Among active positions in the latest quarter, 117 holders increased their positions by a total of 14.5 million shares, 78 holders decreased the positions by a total of 19.65 million shares, and 25 holders held their positions. This works out to a net decrease in ownership of 5.14 million shares, and suggests that institutions are feeling bearish about the stock.

Among new and sold out positions, 40 holders initiated new positions by a total of 4.45 million shares and 35 holders exited their positions by a total of 14.02 million shares. This nets out to a decrease of 9.58 million shares and is another bearish sign for FOSL.

In the last three months, insiders executed a total of 8 trades. 8 of these were buys. Insider ownership increased by a total of 426753 shares, which suggests that FOSL’s key executives are feeling more optimistic about the outlook for the stock. The data from the past twelve months tells a different story: insiders executed 28 buys and 24 sells, and ownership decreased by a net of 1.19 million shares.



The analysis of insider buying and selling trends can be extended to the aggregate level. Short interest, which represents the number of a stock’s shares currently being shorted, captures what the market as a whole feels about a stock. Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL)’s short interest is 14.76 million shares, or 35.47% of the float. This represents an increase of 3% in the number of shares being shorted compared to the previous reading, and implies that investors felt more pessimistic about the stock during the past two weeks.

In light of the insider ownership and trading data it makes sense to consider technicals to see if they come to a similar conclusion about the outlook for FOSL. A composite of 13 technical indicators that includes measures such as moving averages and momentum oscillators suggests that FOSL is a Strong sell, which implies that FOSL is expected to underperform the market based on prior trading patterns.

Conclusion




Institutional ownership trends suggest that the stock is cheap and the insider trading data indicates that insiders are bullish. Technical indicators (also) suggest that Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) is overvalued.

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