Earnings

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is better stock pick than Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

The shares of Alaska Air Group, Inc. have decreased by more than -16.15% this year alone. The shares recently went down by -1.03% or -$0.64 and now trades at $61.64. The shares of CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX), has jumped by 13.97% year to date as of 06/13/2018. The shares currently trade at $73.09 and have been able to report a change of 0.65% over the past one week.

The stock of Alaska Air Group, Inc. and CarMax, Inc. were two of the most active stocks on Wednesday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 7.97% versus 14.44%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that ALK will grow it’s earning at a 7.97% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to KMX which will have a positive growth at a 14.44% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of KMX implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. ALK has an EBITDA margin of 18.15%, this implies that the underlying business of ALK is more profitable. The ROI of ALK is 13.40% while that of KMX is 4.10%. These figures suggest that ALK ventures generate a higher ROI than that of KMX.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, ALK’s free cash flow per share is a positive 0.4, while that of KMX is positive 0.25.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for ALK is 0.70 and that of KMX is 2.60. This implies that it is easier for ALK to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than KMX. The debt ratio of ALK is 0.71 compared to 3.96 for KMX. KMX can be able to settle its long-term debts and thus is a lower financial risk than ALK.

Valuation

ALK currently trades at a forward P/E of 8.66, a P/B of 2.21, and a P/S of 0.95 while KMX trades at a forward P/E of 15.15, a P/B of 3.98, and a P/S of 0.77. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, ALK is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of ALK is currently at a -22.76% to its one-year price target of 79.80. Looking at its rival pricing, KMX is at a -1.59% relative to its price target of 74.27.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), ALK is given a 2.20 while 2.20 placed for KMX. This means that analysts are equally bullish on their outlook for the two stocks stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for ALK is 2.95 while that of KMX is just 9.41. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for ALK stock.

Conclusion

The stock of CarMax, Inc. defeats that of Alaska Air Group, Inc. when the two are compared, with KMX taking 3 out of the total factors that were been considered. KMX happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, KMX is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for KMX is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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