Earnings

Choosing Between Hot Stocks: Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN), Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT)

The shares of Urban Outfitters, Inc. have increased by more than 20.34% this year alone. The shares recently went up by 3.41% or $1.39 and now trades at $42.19. The shares of Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (NASDAQ:CORT), has jumped by 2.93% year to date as of 05/24/2018. The shares currently trade at $18.59 and have been able to report a change of 3.39% over the past one week.

The stock of Urban Outfitters, Inc. and Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated were two of the most active stocks on Thursday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 15.50% versus -4.90%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that URBN will grow it’s earning at a 15.50% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to CORT which will have a positive growth at a -4.90% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of URBN implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. URBN has an EBITDA margin of 10.78%, this implies that the underlying business of CORT is more profitable. The ROI of URBN is 13.20% while that of CORT is 85.00%. These figures suggest that CORT ventures generate a higher ROI than that of URBN.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, URBN’s free cash flow per share is a positive 3.09, while that of CORT is positive 0.02.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for URBN is 2.70 and that of CORT is 5.40. This implies that it is easier for URBN to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than CORT. The debt ratio of URBN is 0.00 compared to 0.00 for CORT. CORT can be able to settle its long-term debts and thus is a lower financial risk than URBN.

Valuation

URBN currently trades at a forward P/E of 17.02, a P/B of 3.51, and a P/S of 1.28 while CORT trades at a forward P/E of 11.92, a P/B of 9.94, and a P/S of 10.96. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, URBN is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of URBN is currently at a 7.55% to its one-year price target of 39.23. Looking at its rival pricing, CORT is at a -24.65% relative to its price target of 24.67.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), URBN is given a 2.50 while 2.00 placed for CORT. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for URBN stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for URBN is 3.32 while that of CORT is just 13.22. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for URBN stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Urban Outfitters, Inc. defeats that of Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated when the two are compared, with URBN taking 7 out of the total factors that were been considered. URBN happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, URBN is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for URBN is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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