Earnings

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is better stock pick than Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)

The shares of Philip Morris International Inc. have decreased by more than -23.44% this year alone. The shares recently went up by 1.20% or $0.96 and now trades at $80.89. The shares of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK), has slumped by -7.96% year to date as of 05/16/2018. The shares currently trade at $14.22 and have been able to report a change of 2.52% over the past one week.

The stock of Philip Morris International Inc. and Graphic Packaging Holding Company were two of the most active stocks on Wednesday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 8.62% versus 24.49%

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that PM will grow it’s earning at a 8.62% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to GPK which will have a positive growth at a 24.49% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of GPK implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.

Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. PM has an EBITDA margin of 15.56%, this implies that the underlying business of PM is more profitable. The ROI of PM is 39.50% while that of GPK is 7.10%. These figures suggest that PM ventures generate a higher ROI than that of GPK.

Cash Flow



The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, PM’s free cash flow per share is a negative -0.82, while that of GPK is also a negative -6.91.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The current ratio for PM is 1.20 and that of GPK is 1.80. This implies that it is easier for PM to cover its immediate obligations over the next 12 months than GPK.

Valuation

PM currently trades at a forward P/E of 14.07, and a P/S of 4.29 while GPK trades at a forward P/E of 13.48, a P/B of 2.59, and a P/S of 0.92. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, GPK is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions




The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of PM is currently at a -24.14% to its one-year price target of 106.63. Looking at its rival pricing, GPK is at a -21.13% relative to its price target of 18.03.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), PM is given a 2.10 while 1.80 placed for GPK. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for PM stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for PM is 1.63 while that of GPK is just 1.44. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for GPK stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Graphic Packaging Holding Company defeats that of Philip Morris International Inc. when the two are compared, with GPK taking 6 out of the total factors that were been considered. GPK happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, GPK is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for GPK is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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