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Reliable Long-term Trend to Profit From: Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL), Bill Barrett Corporation (BBG)

The shares of Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo have decreased by more than -5.96% this year alone. The shares recently went up by 4.12% or $0.2 and now trades at $5.05. The shares of Bill Barrett Corporation (NYSE:BBG), has slumped by -28.18% year to date as of 12/26/2017. The shares currently trade at $5.02 and have been able to report a change of 7.73% over the past one week.

The stock of Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo and Bill Barrett Corporation were two of the most active stocks on Tuesday. Investors seem to be very interested in what happens to the stocks of these two companies but do investors favor one over the other? We will analyze the growth, profitability, risk, valuation, and insider trends of both companies and see which one investors prefer.

Next 5Y EPS Growth: 2.00% versus 31.00% 

When a company is able to grow consistently in terms of earnings at a high compound rate have the highest likelihood of creating value for its shareholders over time. Analysts have predicted that OCSL will grow it’s earning at a 2.00% annual rate in the next 5 years. This is in contrast to BBG which will have a positive growth at a 31.00% annual rate. This means that the higher growth rate of BBG implies a greater potential for capital appreciation over the years.



Profitability and Returns

Growth alone cannot be used to see if the company will be valuable. Shareholders will be the losers if a company invest in ventures that aren’t profitable enough to support upbeat growth. In order for us to accurately measure profitability and return, we will be using the EBITDA margin and Return on Investment (ROI), which balances the difference in capital structure. The ROI of OCSL is 5.60% while that of BBG is -7.10%. These figures suggest that OCSL ventures generate a higher ROI than that of BBG.

Cash Flow 




The value of a stock is ultimately determined by the amount of cash flow that the investors have available. Over the last 12 months, OCSL’s free cash flow per share is a positive 0.01.

Liquidity and Financial Risk

The ability of a company to meet up with its short-term obligations and be able to clear its longer-term debts is measured using Liquidity and leverage ratios. The debt ratio of OCSL is 0.48 compared to 1.30 for BBG. BBG can be able to settle its long-term debts and thus is a lower financial risk than OCSL.

Valuation

OCSL currently trades at a forward P/E of 10.98, a P/B of 0.82, and a P/S of 4.06 while BBG trades at a P/B of 0.73, and a P/S of 1.71. This means that looking at the earnings, book values and sales basis, OCSL is the cheaper one. It is very obvious that earnings are the most important factors to investors, thus analysts are most likely to place their bet on the P/E.

Analyst Price Targets and Opinions

The mistake some people make is that they think a cheap stock has more value to it. In order to know the value of a stock, there is need to compare its current price to its likely trading price in the future. The price of OCSL is currently at a -2.7% to its one-year price target of 5.19. Looking at its rival pricing, BBG is at a -22.17% relative to its price target of 6.45. This figure implies that over the next one year, BBG is a better investment.

When looking at the investment recommendation on say a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell), OCSL is given a 2.80 while 2.40 placed for BBG. This means that analysts are more bullish on the outlook for OCSL stocks.

Insider Activity and Investor Sentiment

Short interest or otherwise called the percentage of a stock’s tradable shares currently being shorted is another data that investors use to get a handle on sentiment. The short ratio for OCSL is 0.19 while that of BBG is just 4.45. This means that analysts are more bullish on the forecast for OCSL stock.

Conclusion

The stock of Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo defeats that of Bill Barrett Corporation when the two are compared, with OCSL taking 6 out of the total factors that were been considered. OCSL happens to be more profitable, generates a higher ROI, has higher cash flow per share, higher liquidity and has a lower financial risk. When looking at the stock valuation, OCSL is the cheaper one on an earnings, book value and sales basis. Finally, the sentiment signal for OCSL is better on when it is viewed on short interest.

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